Class Cliodynamics

java.lang.Object

org.episteme.social.politics.history.Cliodynamics

public class Cliodynamics
extends Object

Implements models from Cliodynamics and Structural-Demographic Theory (SDT). These models attempt to explain historical cycles of instability and state breakdown.

Since:

1.0

Author:

Silvere Martin-Michiellot, Gemini AI (Google DeepMind)

Method Summary

Modifier and Type	Method	Description
static Real	calculatePoliticalStressIndex(Real mmp, Real emp, Real sfd)	Calculates the Political Stress Index (PSI), a key metric in Structural-Demographic Theory.
static Real	estimateMMP(Real realWage, Real expectedWage, Real urbanizationRate)	Estimates Mass Mobilization Potential (MMP).

Methods inherited from class Object

clone, equals, finalize, getClass, hashCode, notify, notifyAll, toString, wait, wait, wait

Method Details

calculatePoliticalStressIndex

public static Real calculatePoliticalStressIndex(Real mmp,
 Real emp,
 Real sfd)

Calculates the Political Stress Index (PSI), a key metric in Structural-Demographic Theory. PSI = (Mass Mobilization Potential) * (Elite Mobilization Potential) * (State Fiscal Distress)

Parameters:

mmp - Mass Mobilization Potential (e.g., related to immiseration, urbanization)

emp - Elite Mobilization Potential (e.g., elite overproduction, intra-elite competition)

sfd - State Fiscal Distress (e.g., debt/revenue ratio)

Returns:

The Political Stress Index

estimateMMP

public static Real estimateMMP(Real realWage,
 Real expectedWage,
 Real urbanizationRate)

Estimates Mass Mobilization Potential (MMP). Simplified proxy: Inverse of real wage relative to expectation.

Parameters:

expectedWage - Culturally expected standard of living

urbanizationRate - Rate of urbanization (multiplier)

realWaage - Actual real wage

Returns:

MMP