Class VotingBehaviorModel

java.lang.Object

org.episteme.social.sociology.VotingBehaviorModel

public final class VotingBehaviorModel
extends Object

Models individual and collective voting behavior based on political science theories. Incorporates factors such as economic performance (retrospective voting) and partisanship. Modernized to use Real for internal continuous values while accepting double inputs.

Since:

1.0

Version:

1.3

Author:

Silvere Martin-Michiellot, Gemini AI (Google DeepMind)

Method Summary

Modifier and Type	Method	Description
static Real	calculatePolarization(Map<String,Real> opinions)	Calculates polarization in a society based on opinion distribution.
static Real	incumbentVoteProb(Real gdpGrowth, Real partyId)	Estimates the probability of an individual voting for the incumbent party using a simple utility model.

Methods inherited from class Object

clone, equals, finalize, getClass, hashCode, notify, notifyAll, toString, wait, wait, wait

Method Details

incumbentVoteProb

public static Real incumbentVoteProb(Real gdpGrowth,
 Real partyId)

Estimates the probability of an individual voting for the incumbent party using a simple utility model.

Model based on: P(Vote) = 0.5 + a * (GDP Growth) + b * (Partisanship)

Parameters:

gdpGrowth - annual GDP growth rate (Real)

partyId - partisan identification score (Real)

Returns:

the probability of voting for the incumbent as Real

calculatePolarization

public static Real calculatePolarization(Map<String,Real> opinions)

Calculates polarization in a society based on opinion distribution. Higher values indicate a more divided society with extreme clusters.

Parameters:

opinions - map of person ID to opinion score (Real values)

Returns:

polarization index as Real